With fields featuring past championship medalists, veterans aiming for one last national team and young, hungry up-and-comers, the distance races at the U.S. Olympic Trials will lack neither quality nor drama. For distance fans, the good stuff starts immediately, with the men’s 5,000m heats and the women’s 10,000m final on the first day of competition, June 27. Here’s a brief event-by-event breakdown of what to look for.
1500 Meters
The men’s field includes last year’s world champion (Bernard Lagat) and last year’s world leader (Alan Webb). But with Webb struggling so far this season, the rest of the field will hardly be conceding him a spot. Since the spring, Webb has run two disastrous road races—fading from 1st at 5K to 16th by the end of an 8K, and then dropping out with half a mile to go in a 5K two weeks later. He ran his first track race of the year at the Prefontaine Classic on June 8, and while most runners would love to open with a 3:55 mile, Webb looked sluggish and showed none of his usual aggression, finishing well behind the leaders. A 5th-place, 1:47 800m the following week only added to the uncertainty about his fitness.
Lagat, meanwhile, has the fastest American time of the year, and has won every race he’s entered this season. He should be able to make the team regardless of whether the race is fast or slow. Usually, Webb, who is a relatively poor sprinter, would be expected to push the pace, but might be too nervous about his fitness to do that. If the race comes down to a kick, look for Lopez Lomong and Leo Manzano, who took the first two spots, respectively, at the recent NCAA championships.
At this point, the women’s race looks to be Shannon Rowbury’s to lose. The national 3,000m indoor champ has run 4:01.61 this season, more than 3 seconds faster than second seed Christine Wurth. Rowbury has also run a 2:02 800m this year, so should be able to win any type of race. Other than Rowbury and Wurth, only two women (Erin Donohue and Treniere Clement) have the Olympic A standard. Look for Rowbury and her training partner Donohue to dictate the terms of the final.
3,000-Meter Steeplechase
This is the first year the women’s steeplechase will be run in the Olympics. American record holder Lisa Galaviz and NCAA champion Jenny Barringer are more than 5 seconds faster than the rest of the field so far this year. But with the opportunity to make the first Olympic team in a rapidly developing event, this is one of the most uncertain events of the Trials.
The men’s race is almost as unsettled. Anthony Famiglietti has the fastest time of the year, was on the 2004 Olympic team in the event and has solid non-steeple personal bests of 3:35 for 1500m and 13:11 for 5,000m. But he also has a history of being erratic, and failed to make last year’s World Championships team. Veteran Steve Slattery is still looking to make his first Olympic team, but hasn’t run any head-turning races for close to a year. The final will likely be run at a solid pace from the start, because several contenders still lack the Olympic A standard, and won’t want to spend the summer chasing it over in Europe.
5,000 Meters
The men’s race should be one of the distance highlights. Reigning world champion Bernard Lagat has the fastest American time of the year in this event, as he does in the 1500m. Matt Tegenkamp, 4th at last year’s World Championships, is a bit more of a question mark than he would have liked to be at this point. His one 5,000m of the year was a so-so 13:28 in Hengelo. Two weeks later, he scratched at the last minute from the mile at the Prefontaine Classic because of hamstring tenderness. He’s still a good bet to make the team, but won’t be as feared by the rest of the field as would have been expected a month ago.
In contrast, one of Tegenkamp’s training partners, Chris Solinsky, saw his stock shoot up dramatically after the 2-mile at the Prefontaine meet. There he battled three former world champions (Lagat, Rashid Ramzi and Paul Koech) through the last lap and placed 4th in 8:15, leaving runners such as World Championships medalist Craig Mottram in his wake. The second fastest American of the year, Brent Vaughn, ran 13:18 in May, and will be making his professional debut at the Trials. Because of a long college racing schedule, he might be more tired than much of the rest of the field. Unless one of the many runners in the field who needs the Olympic A standard takes it hard from the start, it’s likely that Tegenkamp and Solinsky will start a long drive for home with a kilometer or more to go, because they’ll want to get rid of slower runners who might be able to best them in a sprint. In this race, 4th place (who becomes the alternate) could be almost as valuable as 3rd, because Lagat has not said whether he plans to double in Beijing if he makes the 1500m and 5,000m team.
The women’s 5,000m should be significantly shaped by the women’s 10,000m final, which will be run the previous week. That’s because the top two seeds in the 10,000m, Shalane Flanagan and Kara Goucher, are also seeded first and third, respectively in the 5,000m. If both of them make the 10,000m team, it’s unlikely they’ll also contest the 5,000m. Even in the unlikely scenario that Flanagan and Goucher both miss making the 10,000m team, the 5,000m would still probably feature a small lead pack. Those two, along with Jen Rhines (14:54 this year) and Lauren Fleshman (14:58 this year), enter the meet at least 20 seconds faster than the rest of the field.
10,000 Meters
The women’s 10,000m could well be the most memorable distance race of the Trials. In one corner, Shalane Flanagan, who set the American record of 30:34 in May. In the other corner, Kara Goucher, 3rd at last year’s World Championships, and showing good fitness with a recent solo run of 31:26, plus a 14:58 5,000m and 4:06 1500m. Flanagan will probably push the pace almost from the start, daring Goucher to go with her. If that happens, the rest of the field will almost certainly let them go, and third place will come out of the chase pack. Veterans such as Amy Rudolph and Elva Dryer still need the Olympic A standard, so they can’t afford to let the pace lag too much.
In the men’s 10,000m, Abdi Abdirahman is clearly the class of the likely contenders. He ran a personal best of 27:16 at the Prefontaine Classic, meaning that he’s 32 seconds faster than any other American this year. Only five other men in the field have the Olympic A standard, and some of them are questionable—Meb Keflizighi hasn’t run a good race in close to a year, and Galen Rupp dropped out of a recent 5,000m with a sore calf. Two others, Jorge Torres and James Carney, have run respectably this year at 5,000m, but haven’t run a 10,000m in a year. Our dark-horse pick for the team is the second fastest American of the year, Scott Bauhs, still a student at small Chico State University in California. He has the Olympic A standard and has shown himself to be fearless in the few opportunities he’s had to go up against elite-level competition.
