Will there be a gold medal for China this coming Sunday for the first time in Olympic marathon history? Zhou Chunxiu and perhaps Zhu Xiaolin surely have a chance in Beijing to fulfill this Chinese dream. They belong to a large group of favorites, which include the British world record holder Paula Radcliffe, the Kenyan world champion Catherine Ndereba and the Ethopians Gete Wami and Berhane Adere. But contrary to the Chinese, their fiercest competitors have had problems lately. Indeed, the defending champion, Mizuki Noguchi of Japan, has withdrawn from the race with a thigh injury. All of this could bode well for Zhou and Zhu.

There won‘t be a big favorite on Sunday in Beijing—which will be no different than in the past editions of the Olympic woman‘s marathon races. Then again, it’s probably good not to be the favorite, because the pre-race favorite hasn’t fared well in the last four Olympics. In Barcelona in 1992 the Pole Wanda Panfil was the favorite, but didn’t finish in the top ten. Uta Pippig entered the race in Atlanta in 1996 as number one, but dropped out due to a stress fracture. The next big Olympic favorite was Tegla Loroupe, who had broken Ingrid Kristiansen’s 13-year-old world record in 1998. However, in Sydney in 2000, beset with stomach problems, she came in 13th. And most famously, in Athens in 2004, Paula Radcliffe, the new world record holder, dropped out with five miles to go and sat crying on the curb.

Here are seven favorites who go into the race on Sunday with golden chances:

Catherine Ndereba (Kenya)
Personal Best: 2:18:47
The Kenyan has been for many years one of the best marathoners of the world. In 2001 she briefly held the world record with 2:18:47. At the Olympic Games four years ago, she won silver behind Noguchi. In 2003 and 2007 Ndereba won the marathon at the world championships, including in extreme heat last year in Japan. The 36-year-old’s spring races were nothing great, but she won the New York City Half Marathon two and a half weeks ago, and could be timing her peak perfectly.

Paula Radcliffe (Great Britain)
Personal Best: 2:15:25
The marathon world record holder was the dominating figure over 26.2 miles for many years up until she dropped out of the race in Athens. After a maternity leave, she quickly returned to top-level competition with a win at last November’s New York City Marathon. This Olympic year, however, the 34-year-old has had bad luck time and again. A toe injury stopped her in the spring. In May, she lost more time to a stress fracture in her thigh. Struggling to rapidly regain form, she lost several crucial days recently because of a spider bite and resultant fever.

Gete Wami (Ethiopia)
Personal Best: 2:21:34
Gete Wami accomplished an extraordinary achievement this past fall: After a victory at the Berlin Marathon, five weeks later in New York City she finished second, just barely beaten by Paula Radcliffe. At April’s London Marathon, however, she was not in top shape, and even fell during the race, and finished third. The Olympic Marathon will be her fourth race at the distance within 12 months, which could prove her undoing.

Berhane Adere (Ethiopia)
Personal Best: 2:20:42
Berhane Adere is the second Ethiopian marathon runner who celebrated great successes in past years. The 35-year-old is also the national record holder for the distance. Beijing will be the first major marathon championship for the former 10,000m world champion (2003). As with Wami, though, it will also be her fourth marathon in 12 months, after victories in Chicago in 2007 and Dubai in January, as well as a seventh-place finish at London in April.

Deena Kastor (USA)
Personal Best: 2:19:36
Deena Kastor ran after an impressing tactical race four years ago during Olympics in Athens to take the bronze medal. She then became the first American under 2:20 when she won the 2006 London Marathon in 2:19:36. She hasn’t shown that sort of fitness since, but in April the 35-year-old did convincingly win the U.S. Trials, and she knows how to peak when it counts.

Zhou Chunxia (China)
Personal Best: 2:19:51
Presumably the strongest of the three Chinese marathoners, the 29-year-old set the national record two years ago. In 2007 she won the London Marathon, the first time a Chinese runner had taken one of the big-city European or American marathons. Zhou hasn’t run a marathon this year. In front of the home crowd, the runner-up at last year’s world championships is surely a top contender.

Zhu Xiaolin (China)
Personal Best: 2:23:57
Zhu Xiaolin showed good enough form in the last year to get the second of China’s three spots in the marathon. First she won the race in Xiamen, then she ran surprisingly well in the heat to take fourth at last year’s world championships. Although her personal best is not as fast as that of many others in the field, her run in Osaka and national pride should make her a factor.